There has been much talk of a return to inflation which has only picked up pace if you are fan of financial market news and podcasts. Whilst a lot of the conversation focuses on the Federal Reserve, global money printing by central banks and more recently the record fiscal spending, there seems to be less attention being paid to some of the slower acting forces. We look at these in some detail to see what longer term change are potentially in store for the 2020's.
One thesis is that with the trade (commercials such as merchants, end-users and producers) have a record large short position in both net and gross terms. This in a backdrop where overall prices, whilst high, are nowhere near record high prices and bank financing becoming harder to come by and more expensive
In this type of environment being nimble and having access to capital will be unique and combination that should see a sustained period of out performance vs piers and other soft commodity opportunities.
Price action last week whilst not bullish, showed good support in the $74-$75 area, rebounding twice from this level. As of today, prices are trying to break higher with the May contract back above $80. Be patient and see if we get another re-rest of the high $80s.
Corona virus fears are everywhere. Equities at ATH’s and macro sensitive commodities such as copper and oil are suffering. As seems to be typical these days the best bearish hedge is a commodity short and hold onto your long equities and bonds.